Banco Central de Costa Rica

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Monetary Policy and Inflation

 

Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type

A Disaggregated Model and Second Round Effects for CPI Inflation in Costa Rica

This paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model for the headline inflation of Costa Rica, using disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimation is characterized by a process of reduction of inflation.

2012 

C51, C53 E31, E58

Documento de Investigación

Update on Costa Rica's Living Standards 1960-1995 (Spanish)

Proposal to establish a standard of living index for Costa Rica for several years (SP)

1997

D60, D63, E31, E64

Research Document

Actualización de los parámetros del Modelo Monetario de Inflación

Period 1982-2007 (SP)

2008

C5, E5

Research Document

Some Measurements of the Inflationary Process (Spanish)

The case of Costa Rica (SP)

1998

E3, E5

Research Document

Chart and Correlational Analysis of Inflation versus Unemployment and Inflation versus Growth (Spanish)

Chart and correlational analysis of inflation v growth and inflation v unemployment in economies using inflation targeting (SP)

2010

E42, E58

Working Paper

Analysis on the Properties of Some Price Indices (Spanish)

Analysis on characteristics of some price indices with a view to their alternative use in economic research (SP)

1994

E3, E5

Research Document

Analysis of the dynamic relationship between M1 monetary aggregates (Spanish)

Anayisis of the dynamic relationship among M1 monetary aggregates, monetary base, issue with domesetic prices, and economic activity in Costa Rica (SP)

1997

C22, E31, E52

Research Document

Spectral Analysis of Price Indicators in Costa Rica (Spanish)

The behavior of monthly variation series of 22 price indicators is studied through spectral analysis, using data from the period of Feb-1997 - Dec. 2010 (SP)

2011

E31, E32, E39

Research Document

Analysis on the Dynamic Relationship among Monetary Aggregatees, Domestic Prices, and Economic Activity (Spanish)

An analysis on the dynamic relationship among major monetary aggregates, domestic prices, and economic activity (SP).

1996

C22, E31, E52

Research Document

Performance of Artificial Neural Networks in Forecasting Costa Rican Inflation (Spanish)

Research paper presented at the XIV Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network of the Americas (EN)

2009

C45, C53, E37

Research Document

Theoretical aspects on monetary policy design (Spanish)

The main concepts that should be theoretically considered when designing monetary policy are presented here (SP)

1997

E42, E58, E61

Research Document

Monetary Pressure Coefficients on Prices over the Short and Long Term (Spanish)

Monetary pressure coefficients on short and long term prices (SP)

1995

C20, E31, E41, E51

Research Document

Combining Inflation Forecasts: New Methodologies (Spanish)

Combined inflation projections: New methodologies (SP)

2009

C53, E37

Research Document

Combined Inflation Projections (Spanish)

The various inflation projections of individual models recently used are combined here in one single projection (SP)

2001

C54, E58

Research Document

Constructing Asymmetric Fan Charts (Spanish)

An application for inflation forcasting in Costa Rica (SP)

2010

E31, E37, C19, C53

Research Document

Costa Rica - Sensitivity of Portfolio Capitals to Premium and Implications for Macroeconomic Policy (Spanish)

Period 1991-2007 (SP)

2008

E44, E52, F32, G11

Research Document

Costs and benefits of inflation reduction in Costa Rica (Spanish)

The cost in terms of well-being associated with the reduction of the inflation rate in CR is identified and compared to expected earnings. Costs are measured using the consumer surplus approach, for which a function of cash demand is estimated. Earnings are quantified by deducting the expected improvement in the production of the economy due to inflation reduction.

2014

E31, E64, I31

Costs of transactions in Costa Rica*

In this study we carry out the first formal estimation of the social cost of transactions in Costa Rica. The estimation considers transactions in cash and cards, covers the 2008- 2011 years and is based on the methodology applied by Bergman, Guibourg and Segendorf (2007) for Sweden, with adaptations specific for Costa Rica.

2012

D12, D23, D24

Investigation document

Costa Rica in transition towards inflation targets (Spanish)

Prepared upon request of the IADB, presented in the seminar-workshop: "Costa Rica in transition towards inflation targeting: challenges and limitations", organized by the World Bank in San José on November 5, 2011. This provides an overview of the context in which the BCCR Board of Directors made the decision to start a migration process towards an explicit inflation target scheme. It also presents important facts and amendments as of June 2012.

2014

E58

The Phillips Curve in Costa Rica (Spanish)

An estimate on the Error Correction Model is presented with quarterly data (SP)

2003

E47, E52

Research Document

Demand for Time Deposits and Current Account Deposits in Foreign Currency (Spanish)

Econometric and ARIMA models are assessed here to help explain and estimate the behavior of demand for current account and time deposits in foreign currency for the period 1987-1995 (SP).

1996

C22, G11, G21

Research Document

Demand for Cash in Costa Rica, 2000-2010 (Spanish)

The demand of real balances over the short and long term is estimated for circulating cash, quasi money in national currency, and total liquidity (SP)

2010

E41, E5

Research Document

Private Demand for Public Debt and Other Financial Assets (Spanish)

The private demand for public debt and other financial assets are estimated in this document. (SP)

2001

G2, E62

Research Document

Real Private Demand for Credit (Spanish)

The demand for credit in Costa Rica's private sector is estimated for the period from Jan 1995 to Dec. 2001. (SP)

2002

E4, E5

Research Document

Quarterly Demand for Currency Issue (Spanish)

Estimate on the quarterly demand for currency issue by using statistical methods of ordinary least squares, error correction, and auto-regressive vectors (SP)

1999

Research Document

Dynamics of Inflation and the New Neo-Keynesian Phillips Curve in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Review on the historic evolution of the Phillips curve. (SP)

2004

B4, C5, E3, E5

Research Document

Dynamics and Persistence of Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Period 1953-2009 (SP)

2010

E31, C22

Research Document

Designing an Advanced Synthetic Index for Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Advance document I: Cyclical behavior of inflation levels (SP)

1998

C5, E31

Research Document

Designing an Advanced Synthetic Index for Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Advance document II: Cyclical behavior of inflation levels (SP)

1998

E31, E32

Research Document

Designing an Advanced Synthetic Index for Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish)

The case of Costa Rica (SP)

1999

C5, E31

Working Paper

Determining Structural Changes in Inflation Levels, 1997-2011 (Spanish)

A null hyphotesis on whether a structural change ocurred in the interannual inflation rate ocurred is assessed. From this date forward, one-digit rates have been consistently recorded --an outstanding outcome in the country's recent inflatinary record (SP)

2012

C12, C32, E31

Working Paper

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy (Spanish)

An approach to how they are measured in Costa Rica (SP)

1995

E5

Research Document

Asymmetric Effecs of Monetary Policy (Spanish)

Obtaining empirical evidence on whether monetary policy results in asymmetrical effects on the extent of economic activity. (SP)

2003

E4, E5, C2

Research Document

El efecto traspaso de la tasa de interés de los instrumentos del Banco Central en Costa Rica

As part of the preparation and transition process to an inflation target regime in the year 2011 the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) established the Monetary Policy Interest Rate as its main monetary policy instrument, since then it has become of institutional interest to assess the effectiveness of this instrument to influence the remaining interest rates in the financial system. This is why this paper studies the Central Bank of Costa Rica monetary policy interest rate pass through to the interest rates of the financial system from January 2000 until July 2013.

2014

E43, E44, E52

Investigation document

El déficit del BCCR como fuente estructural de expansión monetaria

Analiza las causas del resultado patrimonial del BCCR, el efecto de las capitalizaciones parciales recibidas y presenta algunas proyecciones del balance del Banco.

2012

E31, E58

A Monetary Approach to the Effects of a Fixed Exchange Rate on Prices and Interest Rates (Spanish)

Monetary effects of maintaining a fixed exchange rate on prices and interest rates are analyzed in this paper. (SP)

2002

C2, E5

Research Document

Estimate on a Monthly Demand Function per Currency Issue (Spanish)

A monthly demand function in real terms for currency issue is estimated here using similar specifications as those propsoed by Cagan (SP).

1996

E4, E5

Research Document

Estimate on the Parameter Interest Rate for Costa Rica (Spanish)

This document establishes whether an economic relationship may be found to explain the behavior of BEM interest rates. (SP)

2001

E43, E52

Research Document

Estimate on the Real Neutral Interest Rate for Costa Rica (Spanish)

Period 1991-2006 (SP)

2007

C3, E4

Research Document

Middle-Term Strategies to Reduce Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Some options the Central Bank has to reduce inflation over the middle term are analyzed (SP)

2004

E31, E52, E58

Research Document

Assessing the Pass-Through Linear Model to Forecast Inflation (Spanish)

Assessment of the linear pass-through model for projecting inflation within the exchange rate system of bands (SP)

2009

E31, E58

Research Document

Assessing Variables for Inflation Projections (Spanish)

An assessment of economic variables to forecast inflation in Costa Rica (SP).

2003

E31, E37, E52

Research Document

International Evidence on some Prerrequisites to Adopt Inflation Targeting (Spanish)

International evidence on some "prerrequisites" to adopt inflation targeting (SP)

2007

E5, E6

Research Document

Evolution of Macroeconomic Modeling at BCCR (Spanish)

Period 2002-2006 (SP)

2006

Research Document

Inflation expectations in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Analysis of expected Inflation by levels, based on the Monthly Inflation Expectations Survey and Exchange Rate Variation; analysis of different hypothesis are analyzed concerning formation processes.

2013

E31, E52, C82

Inflation Expectations and Variations in Exchange Rate (Spanish)

Inflation expectations and exchange rate variations implied in securities transactions in Costa Rican Debt Bonds 2005-2009 (SP)

2009

E5, E6, D84

Research Document

Experiences regarding Monetary Policy - Lessons for Costa Rica (Spanish)

Relevant elements to be considered when implementing a new monetary strategy for the country are analyzed here (SP).

1997

E52, E58

Research Document

Reaction Function for the Interest Rate in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Interest rate changes and the factors affecting such changes in Costa Rica are discussed in this document (SP)

2000

E42, E52

Research Document

Reaction Function for BCCR's Policy Rate (Spanish)

An estimate of a reaction function for BCCR's policy rate. (SP)

2003

E4, E5

Research Document

Towards an Understanding of the Inflation Phenomenon (Spanish)

The case of Costa Rica (SP)

2007

C22, E31, E52

Research Document

Toward a More Effective Implementation of Operations in the Open Market (Spanish)

Toward a greater effectiveness when implementing BCCR's open market transactions. (SP)

2005

E31, E44, E58

Research Document

Rational Expectation Hypothesis and the Model of Development of Inflation Expectations in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Documento de investigación presentado en la XIV Reunión de la Red de Investigadores de Bancos Centrales del Continente Americano

2009

E31, E52, E59

Research Document

Impact of Oil Prices in Costa Rica (Spanish)

The impact of oil prices in Costa Rica's economy is quantified here (SP)

2000

E30, E50

Research Document

Monetary Policy & Inflation

Monetary Policy & Inflation

Indicator for the monetary policy rate of the Central Bank of Costa Rica

El presente trabajo elabora un indicador de tasa de política monetaria (ITPM) del Banco Central de Costa Rica a partir del año 2000 en adelante. Para la construcción del indicador se toma como referencia la definición de la tasa de política actual siendo ésta una tasa de corto plazo.

2015

E43, E52, E61

Working paper

Indicators of core inflation for Costa Rica, based on exclusion and reweighting (Spanish)

Evaluation of the performance of new core inflation indicators for Costa Rica, using the methodology of exclusion and reweighting of items of the basic food basket at the official index.

2013

E31, C43, E37

Credibility indices of the Banco Central de Costa Rica in the transition to Inflation Targets (Spanish)

Six credibility indices of the monetary policy of the Banco Central de Costa Rica are presented as it transitions towards the Inflation Target. The indices, designed by Cecchetti and Krause (2002), Mendonça (2004), Sicsú (2005), Nahon and Meurer (2009), and a new index proposed in this study, were calculated based on the Monthly Survey on Inflation and Exchange Rate Variation Expectations.

2014

D84, E31, E58

Inflation and Output Gap (Spanish)

An empirical study on the effect of the output gap in inflation (SP)

2000

E31, E32

Research Document

Inflation in a Context of Tradable and Non-Tradable Goods with Inertia (Spanish)

The model presented here serves to explain the causes of moderate inflation in a small, open economy (SP).

1995

E40, F41

Research Document

Relevance of External Inflation when Defining an Inflation Rate (Spanish)

External inflation of relevance when considering how to define an inflation target (SP)

2010

E5, E6

Research Document

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence for Costa Rica. (SP)

2002

C4,E3

Research Document

Significance of International Inflation for Costa Rica (Spanish)

External inflation of relevance for Costa Rica is discussed in this document, and is defined as that having significant effects on domestic inflation behavior (SP)

2012

E31, C12, C43

Business partner inflation as a reference for inflation target in Costa Rica (Spanish)

A measure of inflation of business partners is proposed, based on moving weights which are constantly adjusted according to the relative importance of the bilateral trade between Costa Rica and each partner with respect to total trade.

2013

E31, E61, F00

General Guidelines on the Administration of International Monetary Reserves (Spanish)

General Guidelines on the Administration of International Monetary Reserves by the Central Bank (SP)

1997

E58, F30

Research Document

Transmission Mechanism for Bank Credits and its Relevance for Costa Rica (Spanish)

The banking credit transmission mechanism and its relevance for the case of Costa Rica. (SP)

2004

E5, G2

Research Document

Transmission Mechanisms for Monetary Policy - A conceptual Framework (Spanish)

Most important theoretical aspects about the main monetary policy transmission mechanisms (SP)

1999

E31, E52, E58

Research Document

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Costa Rica, 1991-2007 (Spanish)

Project jointly coordinated with CEMLA and some of Latin America's Central Banks (SP)

2008

E37, E52

Research Document

Medias truncadas del IPC como indicadores de inflación subyacente en Costa Rica (Spanish)

Medias truncadas del IPC como indicadores de inflación subyacente en Costa Rica (SP)

2011

C46, E31

Research Document

Trimmed Means of the CPI in 2009 (Spanish)

An alternative indicator of core inflation (SP)

2010

Research Document

Measuring Ouput Gap and Estimates with the Phillips Curve (Spanish)

Measurements on the output gap and Philliips curve estimates for Costa Rica's economy. (SP)

2005

C51, C52, E2

Research Document

Core Inflation Measures for Costa Rica (Spanish)

Alternative core inflation measures are developed and assessed in this document. (SP)

2002

E31, E52

Research Document

Macroeconomic Modeling at Costa Rica's Central Bank (Spanish)

Transition from exchange rate peg to inflation targeting. (SP)

2006

C5, E1

Research Document

Model of Development of Inflation Expectations (Spanish)

Model of development of inflation expectations. (SP)

2006

C5, E3

Research Document

BCCR's Macroeconomic Model of Quarertly Projections (Spanish)

BCCR's Macroeconomic model of quarterly projections (SP)

2007

C5, E1

Research Document

Macroeconomic Model Quarterly Forecast Transition to Exchange-Rate Flexible System (Spanish)

BCCR's model of quarterly projections in the transition to a flexible exchange rate system (SP)

2008

C50, C53, E17

Research Document

Monetary Model of Inflation Applied to Capitalization of Costa Rica's Central Bank (Spanish)

Monetary model of inflation applied to BCCR capitalization (SP)

2006

E31, E58, E63

Research Document

Short-term inflation models for tradable and non-tradable sectors (Spanish)

Short-term inflation models for tradable and non-tradable sectors of Costa Rica's economy (SP)

2011

E31, E37, E39

Research Document

Single-Variable Models for Inflation (Spanish)

Choosing a single-variable model to project inflation (SP)

2000

E31, E37

Research Document

Orden de propagación de cambios en la tasa de política del Banco Central

Los resultados muestran que los cambios en la tasa de política monetaria se reflejan primeramente en las tasas pasivas de los bancos comerciales y luego de forma indirecta sobre las tasas activas. Con respecto a la diferencia entre bancos estatales y privados, existe evidencia que los estatales reaccionan primero.

2015

E43, E44, E52

Persistencia inflacionaria en Costa Rica: Precios de Servicios y Regulados

Estudia el grado de persistencia inflacionaria y las rigideces de precios, a nivel desagregado y agregado, de los artículos del IPC en los subíndices de Bienes-Servicios y No regulados-Regulados. La evidencia apunta a que las variaciones de precios artículos regulados y servicios poseen mayores grados de persistencia.

2015

E31, C22, C32

Policy Rate Pass-Through. Evidence from Costa Rica's Economy (Spanish)

Policy rate pass-through. Evidence from the Costa Rican economy (EN)

2008

E43, E44, E52

Research Document

Monetary Programming by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (Spanish)

Analysis, proposals, and considerations for the middle term. (SP)

2001

E31, E47, E52, E58

Research Document

Inflation forecast for Costa Rica (Spanish)

An estimate on artificial neural networks (SP).

2005

E31, E37, E52

Research Document

Inflation Forecasting through Factorial Analysis (Spanish)

Inflation forecasting through factorial analysis. (SP)

2006

E31, E37

Research Document

Propagation of Inflationary Shocks in Costa Rica (Spanish)

An estimate on inflationary propagation shocks on groups and products included in the CPI is presented here, using structural VARs (SP)

2012

C32, E31

Research Document

Methodological Proposal to Estimate the Size of a Bill Order (Spanish)

A methodological proposal is presented to estimate the size of a bill acquisition order for Costa Rica's economy (SP)

1999

A1

Research Document

Methodological Proposal to Estimate the Size of a Coin Order (Spanish)

A methodological proposal is presented to estimate the size of a coin acquisition order for Costa Rica's economy (SP)

2000

E41, E42

Research Document

Inflation Projections, Innovation in Agricultural & Regulated Prices and Adjustments (Spanish)

Adjustments in original inflation projections resulting from innovations in domestic prices (SP)

2000

E31, E37

Research Document

Compilation on Definitions and Changes in Policy Rates by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (Spanish)

Major changes in policy rate are documented here, including changes in its definition and level. Period from Feb 2004-Oct 2008 (SP)

2008

E31, E43

Research Document

Reformulating the Aggregate Demand Function for Costa Rica's Production. (Spanish)

Applying the error correction mechanism. (SP)

2005

C5, E1, E2

Research Document

Relationship among Major Monetary Aggregatess, Domestic Prices, and Economic Activity (Spanish)

An analysis on the dynamic relationship among major monetary aggregates, domestic prices, and economic activity (SP).

1996

C22, E31, E37

Research Document

Monetary Transmission in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Monetary transmission in Costa Rica is examined, whereby a mini-devaluations system has been succesfully used as exchange rate policy for 15 years (SP)

2000

C46, E31

Research Document

Transmission of Changes in Monetary Policy Rates to all Other Rates in the Financial System (Spanish)

Transmission of changes in the policy rate to interest rates in the country's financial system (SP)

2011

E43, E44, E52

Research Document

Estimated Transfer of Exchange Rates to different components Consumer Price Index

During the first quarter of 2014, the Costa Rican colon experienced the strongest depreciation of the last 5 years. One of the main consequences was an increase in the inter-annual ination rate, beginning on March 2014. Considerable diferences in the ination rate were observed in the components and groups of the Consumer Price Index. The main purpose of this paper is to quantify the exchange rate passthrough elasticity towards the ination rate of each group. In order to achieve this purpose, I estimated vector autoregressive systems (VAR) for each group and used the accumulated responses of prices to an exchange rate impulse. For the 2000-2014 period, I measure a pass-through elasticity of 0,219 for the CPI. Transportation and Entertainment and Culture are the two sector most afected by exchange rate variations

2016

E31, E50, F00

Research document

Trimmed Means of the CPI as an Indicator of Core Inflation for Costa Rica (Spanish)

Trimmed means of the CPI as an indicator of core inflation for Costa Rica (EN)

2011

C46, E31

Research Document

Using Weekly Seasonality Coefficients to Estimate the Balance in Currency Issue (Spanish)

Methodological proposal on a technique to seasonally adjust weakly periodicity time series (SP)

1997

C1, E42, E5

Research Document

Validating the ARIMA Model for Inflation (Spanish)

The single-variable ARMA model is validated for projecting short-term inflation (SP)

2011

E31, E37

Working Paper

DT-05-11 - Validating the VAR Model of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms (Spanish)

DT-05-2011 Validating the VAR model of transmission mechanisms for monetary policy (SP)

2011

C32, C52, E31

Working Paper

Validating the VAR Model of Impact of Oil Prices in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Validation of the VAR model of impact of oil prices in Costa Rica.

2011

C1, E52

Working Paper

Validating the Model of Oil Prices Impact in Costa Rica (Spanish)

Validation on the model of impact of oil prices in Costa Rica (SP)

2008

C1, E52

Research Document

Validating the Pass-Through Model for Exchange Rate in Costa Rica -- 1991-2007 (Spanish)

Validation of the exchange rate pass through model for Costa Rica 1991-2007 (SP)

2008

C1, E52

Research Document

Validation of Government Bond-Based Model for Inflation Forecasting. (Spanish)

Validation of the Government bond-based model for inflation forecasting (SP)

2007

E31, E37

Research Document

Validating the Single-Variable Model of Inflation Used in Combined Forecasts (Spanish)

Validation of the single-variable inflation model used in combined forecasting (SP)

2008

E31, E37

Research Document

Validating the VAR Linear Model of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms (Spanish)

Validation of the VAR Lineal Model of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms (SP)

2007

E31, E37

Research Document

Seasonal Variables in Regression Models (Spanish)

Applied to the demand for cash in Costa Rica (SP)

1998

C1

Research Document

Rate of Disinflation in Economies with Inflation Targets (Spanish)

Rate of disinflation in economies with inflation targets (SP)

2010

E31, E65

Working Paper

 

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