Banco Central de Costa Rica

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Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Sector

 

Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type of File

Market Analysis to Operate Forward Exchange Rate Contracts (Spanish)

The behavior the exchange rate would potentially show over a six-month period of time is simulated in this analysis (SP).

1997 

Research Document

Analysis of Variation in Costa Rica's International Reserves (Spanish)

The aim of this document is to study the major determinants of BCCR's international monetary reserves (IMR), and to estimate a useful econometrics specification to project IMR evolution over the medium term (SP)

2003

E4, F3

Research Document

Applying the Direct & Indirect Seasonal Adjustment Method to the Foreign Exchange Flow (Spanish)

Direct and indirect seasonal adjustment methods are applied to foreign exchange earnings and outflows for the period 1983-1997. The aim is to determine whether it is preferable to seasonally adjust the data once aggregated, or by component. Moroever, the document examines whether individual series have a seasonal component.

1997

C10, E01, F32

Research Document

Estimation of seasonal patterns in the Costa Rican Exchange Market, as of June 2013 (Spanish)

The document updates seasonal patterns in the exchange market based on information from October 2006 through June 2013.

2013

F31, C19

2006-2012 Estimation of seasonal patterns in the Costa Rican Exchange Market (Spanish)

A study of seasonal patterns in four series: transactions in Monex, demand, offer and net offer of dollars made by intermediaries.

2012

F31, C19

Estimation of Seasonal patterns in the Costa Rican Exchange Market (Spanish)

Updates previous research about seasonality patterns in the exchange market. Allows identifying patterns in five daily time series: weighted average exchange rate negotiated in Monex, transactions carried out in Monex, and demand, supply, and net supply of dollars by intermediaries in negotiations "over the counter".

2014

F31, C19

Research Document

Exchange Rate Funds: Characteristics, Operational Principales, and Policy Implications (Spanish)

Characteristics of the exchange rate fund monetary system are presented in this document, including the pros and cons of this fixed local currency convertibility system fully backed up with foreign exchange (SP). International examples are used for illustrating purposes.

1997

E52, E58, F31

Research Document

Capital Inflows in a Small Open Economy

Documento técnico que emplea el Diagrama de Metzler para ilustrar la entrada de capitales hacia una economía pequeña y abierta.

2013

E65, F32, F41

Documento de Trabajo

Comparative Analysis of Costa Rican and US Producer Price Indices (Spanish)

In this study, Costa Rica's import price indices are compared and directly calculated, as well as the US Producer Price Index (USPPI). It is intended to validate the USPPI as an approximation to the former, and to contrast it with or build the new indicators.

1997

E31, F10, L16

Research Document

International Competitiveness of Costa Rica. Analysis of Results with CAN (Spanish)

Results of the competitiveness matrix and their implications for Costa Rica's economy are analyzed. A Competitive Analysis of Nations (CAN) was applied, this being a computing instrument and international trade database (SP)

2001

C3, C8, E2

Research Document

Costa Rica: real exchange rate and equilibrium.

This document describes the differences between the effective real exchange rate and the equilibrium effective real exchange rate. Their differences, appropriate uses and common mistakes, as well as the BCCR approach towards them

2015

F31

Costa Rica: Macroeconomic Volatility and Vulnerability (Spanish)

The main vulnerabilities of Costa Rica's economy are analyzed in this document, where an early detection instrument for exchange rate crises is proposed. Watching for detonants of critical exchange rate pressures is recommended, as well as striving for discipline procurar disciplina (SP)

2004

C25, E61, F31, F47

Research Document

Current Account Deficit Consistent with Long-Term Capital Flows (Spanish)

Costa Rica: Estimate on the current account deficit consistent with sustainable long-term capital flows --1999-2009 (SP)

2010

F34, F41

Working Paper

Determinants for Costa Rica's Current Account (Spanish)

A current account model- (Glick & Rogoff and VAR models) is presented, establishing that an investment backlog, the primary result of government, the terms of trade, the international exchange rate, and the real exchange rate all have significant effects on the evolution of the country's current account.

2005

F3, F4

Research Document

Official Dolarization of the Economy (Spanish)

Characteristics and concerns about a potential dollarization in any given country are discussed. The likely consequences --particularly in fiscal and monetary terms-- of adopting such a system, both favorable and unfavourable, are analyzed as well (SP)

1999

E52, F31, F36

Research Document

Effects of Externally Originated Shocks on Production and the Real Exchange Rate in Costa Rica (Spanish)

VAR models are applied for the period 1982-1995 to assess the effects of trade external shocks (foreign demand and international prices) as well as financial ones (US interest rate) on Costa Rica's production and real exchange rate (SP)

1997

C32, F31, F44

Research Document

Macroeconomic effects of capital inflows into the Costa Rican economy (Spanish)

The impact of capital inflows on different macroeconomic variables is quantified, based on information as of December, 2011.

2013

E32, E44, E58, F32, G38

Estimate of the current account deficit consistent with long-term capital flows

We estimate the current account deficit (DCC) consistent with long-term capital flows. The capital flows we consider were foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI more public capital, and Public capital plus private capital

2013

E21, E22, F32

Working Paper

Estimate of a Function for Costa Rica's Regular Exports (Spanish)

Supply and demand variables were used for this estimate. The supply factors were included using an approach whereby an increase in the country's production capacity results in growth-driven exports. The demand factors are summarized as measures involving relative prices and income for the rest of the world.

2012

F14, F17

Working Paper

Estimate on Functions for Import and Export Demand for Goods and Services in Costa Rica (1991-2006) (Spanish)

Estimates on import and export demand functions. Evidence is presented of the Marshall-Lerner condition, whereby an exchange rate depreciation causes an improvement in the balance of trade (SP)

2008

F14, F17, C52, C53

Research Document

Estimate on Costa Rica's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (1991-2006) (Spanish)

Estimate for Costa Rica of the real equilibrium exchange rate --period 1991-2006-- using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, where relevant macroeconomic fundamentals for Costa Rica's economy are considered for this variable.(SP)

2007

C5, C8, F31

Research Document

Estimation of Optimal International Reserves for Costa Rica. A Micro-Founded Approach.

In this paper we apply to the economy of Costa Rica a model for the estimation of the optimal amount of international reserves, developed by Jeanne and Rancière (2006, 2011). Accordingly, the core conclusion of the document is that the Central Bank of Costa Rica should increase its efforts to accumulate international reserves in the medium run.

2012

F32, G01, G15

Documento de investigación

Functions for Import and Export Demand for Goods and Services in Costa Rica (1991-2006) (Spanish)

Functions of export and import demand for goods and services for Costa Rica, period 1991-2006 (SP)

2008

F14, F17, C52, C53

Research Document

Estimate of a Function for Costa Rica's Regular Imports without Hydrocarbon Blocks and without any Special Rules (Spanish)

Two import estimates are presented --one for regular imports without hydrocarbons, and the other one for regular imports without hydrocarbons and without any special rules or regulations, both of them for the period 2000q1- 2011q3.

2012

F14, F17, F41, E17

Working Paper

Total Imports: Reformulating the ARIMA Model and Updating Seasonal Factors (Spanish)

An ARIMA model is used to estimate the behavior of CIF imports for Costa Rica from 1983-1996. Additionally, the X11 ARIMA method was used to estimate the seasonality coeficients present in the series.

1997

F17, C22

Research Document

Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Sector

Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Sector

Follow-up Indicators for Costa Rica's Nominal Exchange Rate (Spanish)

Analysis on the day-to-day behavior in terms of trend and volatility of the nominal exchange rate in both retail and wholesale markets during 2008, 2009, and the beginning of 2010. Financial analysis tools such as MACD, ATR, and RVI are used (SP)

2010

C22, F31

Research Document

Partial Dollarization in Costa Rica (Spanish)

The magnitude and evolution of dollarization in deposits is discussed, while also exploring the factors that determine a preference for financial assets in foreign currencies (SP)

2003

C22, E51, G10, N26

Research Document

Inter-Temporary Sustainability Model of the Current Account Deficit (Spanish)

Analysis on inter-temporary sustainability of the current account deficit based on accounting identities. The estimate is based on a study on the behavior of the balance of payments' components, and causal relations between them are not considered (SP)

2005

F32, F41

Research Document

New Estimates on Costa Rica's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (Spanish)

Estimate for Costa Rica (1991-2005) on the real equilibrium exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) Model, which considers macroeconomic fundamentals, and an estimate of dynamic ordinary least squares (SP)

2005

C5, C8, F31

Research Document

Exchange Rate Pass Through: Analysis for Costa Rica's Economy (1991-2001) (Spanish)

A pass through coefficient is estimated, and some factors pointed out in other empirical studies as potential determinants are discussed, e.g., the output gap, exchange rate deviation vis-á-vis equilibrium, the economy's opening, and a backlog in inflation (SP)

2001

E31, F15, F31

Research Document

Exchange Rate Pass Through to Prices (Spanish)

Pass through coefficients are estimated for the short and long term for the exchange rate on the price of tradable and non-tradable goods in Costa Rica's economy from 1991 to 2002. Evidence is presented on a unilateral precedence of the exchange rate over inflation in both groups (SP)

2002

F31, E31

Research Document

Probability of a sudden current account correction for Costa Rica, through a survival model approach

This paper estimates the probability of a sudden current account correction for Costa Rica, through a survival model approach using data panel. We find that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the dependency ratio increments, iv) the world's GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior.

2015

C22, C43, E27

Investigation Document

What drives capital inflows to Costa Rica? Risk Premium and Interest Rate Differentials

It analyses the interest rate differential as the possible main factor behind the capital inflows experienced by Costa Rica during the second semester of 2012. For this purpose, a panel data model for interest rate differential is estimated taking into consideration an array of relevant macroeconomic variables.

2014

F36, G15

Research document

Exchange Rate Band System (Spanish)

Theoretical models and experiences from other countries to explain the (dis)advantages of adopting an exchange rate band system for Costa Rica are presented. Measures required for this system's practical implementation are examined (SP)

1996

F31, F33

Research Document

Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Costa Rica's Balance of Payments (Spanish)

A potentially sustainable current account deficit is estimated for Costa Rica's economy using different methods. It is concluded that the deficit for every year observed since the mid '80s has been sustainable.

1997

F32, F41

Research Document

Sovereign risk: global and local factors

Determinants of sovereign spread in Costa Rica are analyzed using macroeconomic variables derived from theory. A quarterly panel data set from 2002 to 2014 is used to estimate an Arellano-Bond specification model. Additionally, a VAR model is estimated to identify transmission effects of shocks in risk perception in Latin America and Central America on Costa Rica's sovereign spread. Macroeconomic fundamentals associated with fiscal and external imbalances, local inflation and domestic interest rates explain EMBI spread of Costa Rica and of the countries in the sample. External factors related with international stock market volatility and global risk perception also have a role on EMBI spread determination. Furthermore, there is a contemporaneous and positive effect of a perturbation in Latin American spread on Costa Rica's EMBI spread.

2015

G15

Research document

Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate for Costa Rica. The BEER Approach (1991q1-2009q2) (Spanish)

Estimate for Costa Rica of the equilibrium real exchange rate through the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, which considers macroeconomic fundamentals --Period 1991-2009 (SP)

2010

C5, C8, F31

Research Document

A Model to Estimate the Optimum Level of International Monetary Reserves for Costa Rica (Spanish)

Estimate on the optimum amount of international reserves BCCR should have. This study is based on a model by Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb (1992), whose main idea is to minimize the social cost of keeping such reserves. The probability of crisis is viewed as an endogenous factor (Gottlieb) (SP)

2010

C02, C51, E59

Research Document

Feasibility and Convenience of Full Dolarization in Costa Rica (Spanish)

The nature of an exchange rate scheme based on a fully dollarized economy is presented, including their differences, andvantages, and disadvantages vis-á-vis the rest of countries, and the minimum conditions a country should have to adopt it. The feasibilty of adopting it in Costa Rica over the short and the medium term is discussed (SP)

1999

F31, F33

Research Document

 

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