Banco Central de Costa Rica

|/js/Menu_Izquierda_eng.htm

Economic Research Papers and Documents

 

This website contains research papers authored by employees of the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR).  It includes documents coauthored by researchers from the Department of Economic Research and individuals affiliated with other research institutions in Costa Rica and abroad, as well as papers commissioned by the BCCR to third parties.

 

The research presented here contributes to the analysis and advisory done by the Economics Division in areas related to monetary policy, exchange rate regime and the financial sector.  It also aims to improve the understanding of the Costa Rican economy.

 

Questions should be addressed to: Investigacion_Econom@bccr.fi.cr

 

 

Región de Acordeón

Economic Growth

Tile

Description

Year

JEL

Type

Analysis on the Returns Curve and its Effect on Economic Activity in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Effect of the yield curve on the growth of Costa Rica's real output is studied in this paper, for the period from the first quarter of 1985 to the first quarter of 1994 (SP). 

1995  

D90, E40, G12 

Research Document 

Chronology of Costa Rica's Economic Cycle (Spanish) 

Chronology of Costa Rica's economic cycle is estimated for the period from January 1976 to December 2010. The benchmark value used was the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (MIEA) (SP) 

2011 

E32 

Research Document 

A Composite Leading Indicator of the Economic Activity for Costa Rica 

In this paper we construct three leading indicators that anticipate turning points of the economic activity in Costa Rica. Indicators derived average leads between 7 and 12 months in relation to the reference variable. 

2014 

C22, E32 

Research Document 

Production linkages in Costa Rica: an application from the data of the Input-Product Matriz 

One of the main applications of the input-output matrices is the study of the productive structure of the economy. One of the most successful applications of this subject is the identification of the most important activities within the economy, which is critical to developing public policies for boosting economic growth in the medium term.  

2016 

L52,C67 

Research document  

Estimate of a Production Function: The Case of Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The production function is estimated for Costa Rica using an endogenous technology approach. The properties of the estimated function are studied, e.g. returns to escale, substitution elasticities, and factor intensity (SP) 

1995 

O41, E23 

Research Document 

Estimate of a Production Function for Costa Rica (1991-2006) (Spanish) 

A Cobb-Douglas production function for Costa Rican economy is estimated in this paper. A potential output series is estimated as well (SP) 

2007 

O41, E23, E32 

Research Document 

Estimate of a Quarterly Employment Indicator for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

A quarterly indicator of employment in Costa Rica is estimated for the 1991-2000. The aim is to substantially improve analisis of the economy's situation, además as well as complementing short-term statistics required international financial institutions (SP) 

2002 

CL, C4, E2 

Research Document 

Estimate on Okun's Law for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The relationship established with the Okun law is estimated here for Costa Rica (period 1991-2000), whereby there is a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the real output growth (SP) 

2002 

E23, E24 

Research Document 

Estimate of the Potential Output for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Several estimates on Costa Rica's potential output , using statistical filters and structural models. Results are analyzed in light of an estimate of a Phillips curve and the relation between the output gap and its deviations (SP) 

2007 

C52, C53, E23, E31, E32, E37 

Research Document 

Estimate of a Production Function for Costa Rica, 1978-2010 (Spanish) 

A production function is estimated for Costa Rica's economy, based on information for the period 1978-2010, with the MCOD methodology. The production factors used were physical capital and labor. Additionally, an estimate was made on the human capital factor, whereby labor was adjusted according the the population's average educational level. (SP) 

2012 

D24, N16, O40. 

Working Paper 

Relationship between the Length of Expansion of an Economic Cycle and Contraction of the Following Cycle (Spanish) 

Is there a relationship between the duration of an expansive economic cycle and the duration of the contraction in the following cycle? The case of Costa Rica (SP) 

1994 

E32 

Research Document 

1991-2012 Abstract of the Costa Rican economy (Spanish) 

The main aspects of the Costa Rican economy between 1991-2012 are summarized. This information is necessary to form an idea of the economic cycles based on volatilities and co-movements of important macroeconomic variables. Five complete economic cycles were identified, as well as their duration, their phases, and common factors that explain the behavior of the cycles. 

2014 

E32, E31, E20 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method to calculate productivity indicators for the labor factor in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Period 1976-1992 (SP) 

1994 

O15, O47 

Research Document 

Determining Sign Extraction Models (Spanish) 

Forecast on quarterly series for global supply and demand (SP) 

2001 

C3, C8, E2 

Research Document 

Structural transformations and sectoral productivity in Costa Rica 

This paper documents the process of structural transformation in Costa Rica during six decades starting in 1950. It is widely documented that countries that grow in terms of income have a shift of employment away from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing and services sector. This same pattern can be observed in Costa Rica. However, this process has some peculiarities that will be discussed. 

2015 

O1, O4 

Research document 

Quantitative Methods

Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type

Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Series with Tramo-Seats and Census X-12 ARIMA (Spanish) 

Time series methods of seasonal adjustment provided by Tramo-Seats and Census X12- ARIMA are compared . Both of these softwares may be downloaded online free of charge (SP) 

2005  

C10, C88 

Working Paper 

Notes on the Use of the TSP Econometric Package (Spanish) 

The basic steps to estimate an autoregressive vector system and their subsequent use in forecasting are presented here using the econometrics TSP software (SP) 

1996 

C10, C88 

Working Paper 

Conceptual Aspects about Time Series (Spanish) 

Some conceptual aspects about time series and extraction methods are summarized here. Topics are presented in a simple, user-friendly manner, and some bibliographical references are included for consultation for those wishing to study a topic in more depth (SP) 

2002 

C10 

Working Paper 

Theoretical Aspects about some Econometric Issues (Spanish) 

A summary of some of the most common issues found with the ordinary least squares, such as autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity, as well as some special topics such as integration, cointegration, error correction models, cointegration according to the Johansen approach, autoregressive vectos, and the Kalman filter. (SP) 

2003 

C10 

Working Paper 

Calculating Type II- Error (Spanish) 

Consequences of adopting confidence levels as a pattern for decision making are analyzed in depth (type I error), with the potential for error by accepting as being good an actually false hypothesis (type II error). 

1995 

C10 

Working Paper 

Source Code for Software Used in the Latest Combinations of Inflation Forecasts (Spanish) 

Source code used to generate rolling inflation forecasts based on projection models used by BCCR, as well as the code used to obtain combinations of such forecasts (SP) 

2009 

C10 

Working Paper 

Combined estimation of the potential product with a Bayesian Method 

In this paper, we calculated the potential output for the Costa Rican economy. First, we applied several di_erent methods to calculate this non-observable variable, such as the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, Hodrick-Prescott _lter, production function, Kalman _lter, and SVAR. Then, we combined the results of these methods using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and a Phillips curve. Finally, we obtained optimal weights for each estimated potential product and, estimated an indicator of the potencial output series. 

2015 

C11, C32, E50 

Investigation document 

Quality Control of Numbers Included in an Excell Sheet (Spanish) 

When working with large amounts of data in Excel, it may be useful to have a quality control system for numbers so as to detect any potentially abnormal values. Some of these are suggested in this document (SP) 

2001 

C8 

Working Paper 

Quality Control of Data in Economic Time Series (Spanish) 

The TERROR command from TRAMO SEATS software is studied here, to illustrate the potential of this application in the context of systematization in data auditing, thereby improving the quality of information used (SP) 

2002 

C4, C8 

Working Paper 

Designing a Relevant International Production (Spanish) 

An indicator of the world's production volume relevant for Costa Rica's economy is presented. This indicator provides a new proxy variable on the trend and variability of the international GDP, so as to help explain the behavior of exports (SP) 

2011 

C43, C80 

Working Paper 

Temporary Disaggregation Methods Using Indicators (Spanish) 

A temporary disaggregation exercise of annual value added series is conducted using constants of the transportation, warehousing, and communications industries (SP) 

2012 

 

Working Paper 

The Baxter-King Filter: Methodology and Uses (Spanish) 

The Baxter-King filter method is briefly presented as an useful tool to extract trends in a time series, and to analyze economic cycles. The mathematical properties of this filter are reviewed.  

2000 

C10 

Working Paper 

The Hodrick-Prescott Filter (Spanish) 

Theoretical aspects on the Hodrick-Prescott filter method for time series are presented, along with a comparative analysis of their performance vis-á-vis other trend exctraction methods (SP) 

1994 

C49, C65 

Working Paper 

Estimates on Standardized Regression Coefficients (Spanish) 

This document explains how standard coefficients are obtained and interpreted in a regression, using Econometrics software Eviews (SP) 

2003 

C20, C49 

Working Paper 

Estimación del parámetro de suavizamiento del filtro de Hodrick y Prescott para Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Se estima parámetros de suavizamiento específicos para Costa Rica para su uso en el filtro Hodrick-Prescott, mediante metodología de Marcet y Ravn (2003) y con datos al 2010 (SP) 

2011 

C49, C65 

Working Paper 

Estimation of the Hodrick and Prescott Filter Smoothening Parameter for Costa Rica  

Smoothening parameters specifically estimated for Costa Rica are presented in this paper, for use with the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The method of Marcet and Ravn (2003) was applied, with data up to 2010 (EN) 

2011 

C49, C65 

Working Paper 

Assessing the Use of Econometrics in Economic Analysis (Spanish) 

An outline on the Lucas critique on macroeconomic models is presented (SP) 

1996 

C01, C50 

Working Paper 

The Kalman Filter (Spanish) 

Recursive estimation method with the Kalman filter is presented, including its advantages and disadvantages, and is illustrated with data on Costa Rica (SP) 

2003 

C13, C32, C51 

Working Paper 

Implementing the RMSM-X Model for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Progress Report on implementation of a structural model by the World Bank (RXSM-X) and the case of Costa Rica (SP) 

2001 

B4 

Working Paper 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment Confidence Index according to Economy Analysts (Spanish) 

General uses of confidence indices are presented in this document. A method is proposed to calculate theInvestors Confidence Index for Costa Rica (SP) 

2005 

C80, C81, C83 

Working Paper 

Bayesian Inferences and Exchange Rate Bands (Spanish) 

The main Bayesian theory postulates are discussed, including examples of how they are applied in an exchange rate policy context where the subjective perception of each expert may produce different results (SP) 

1996 

C11, F31 

Working Paper 

Introduction to Numerical Methods (Spanish) 

Some numerical solution algorithms are explained that are applicable to non-linear equations and equation systems. Implementation of some of them with the software Mathematica is presented in an annex (SP) 

2009 

C61, C63, C65 

Working Paper 

Introduction to Unit Roots in Econometric Modeling (Spanish) 

Slide presentation. The main concepts related to seasonality and series unit roots are presented, as well as some frequently used unit root tests. 

2008 

C01, C22, C32 

Working Paper 

VAR and VECM Models (Spanish) 

VAR and VECM models to forecast short-term imports for Costa Rica. These models are compared with an ARIMA model used at the time of the estimate (SP) 

2004 

C1, C3, C5 

Working Paper 

Guidelines for Building a Statistical Questionnaire (Spanish) 

Basic guidelines --both in form and in content-- to be considered when developing a statistical questionnaire are presented in this document (SP) 

1995 

C80, C83 

Working Paper 

Main Indicators for Linear Regression Analysis (Spanish) 

Material for consultation. A list of econometric indicators usually considered with drawing up a diagnostic analysis on the linear regression through ordinary minimum squares (SP) 

2003 

C10, C12, C52 

Working Paper 

Procedure to Apply Unit Root Tests (Spanish) 

A performance evaluation of several unit root tests is presented through Monte Carlo simulations, so as to propose a testing and conclusion protocol for use by BCCR's Economic Research Department (SP) 

2009 

C12, C63 

Working Paper 

Forecasting Costa Rican Quarterly Growth with Mixed-frequency Models 

We assess the utility of mixed-frequency models to forecast the quarterly growth rate of Costa Rican real GDP. To that end, we estimate bridge and MiDaS models using information of the IMAE, we compute forecasts for several horizons and evaluate their performance. 

2014 

 

Research document 

Forecasting Inflation by Bayesian techniques 

The effectiveness of monetary policy under inflation targeting scheme proposed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica is based in the correct and timely forecast of inflation in order to design the best monetary policy actions. The purpose of this study is to develop a complementary tool to forecast inflation using a Bayesian approach. To that end, we estimate the methodologies of "Bayesian Model Averaging" and "Weighted Average Least Squares". This forecast allows expanding and complementing the analysis actually estimated with the Macroeconomic Quarterly Projection Model (MQPM) of the Central Bank of Costa Rica. From the results of this evaluation, we show that for monthly data and forecast horizons from 1 to 12 months, you may find forecast by a Bayesian process that have greater predictive performance than the autoregressive model. 

2015 

C22, C11, E27 

Investigation document 

Diagnostic Tests, Co-Integration, Error Correction Models (Spanish) 

Slide presentation. Foundations of the main cointegration tests are explained, and an estimate of cointegration relations, in addition to some exogeneity tests. Examples used were taken from all contents (SP) 

2008 

C12, C22, C32 

Working Paper 

CUSUM and Square CUSUM Stability Tests (Spanish) 

The theoretical foundations of CUSUM and square CUSUM stability tests are presented (SP) 

1996 

C12, C22, C32 

Working Paper 

Extended Granger Tests (Spanish) 

The method to apply the Granger causality test is presented in this document. It is also implemented using the SHAZAM econometrics software (SP) 

1995 

C12, C22, C33 

Working Paper 

Unit Root Test with Structural Change by Lee and Strazicich (Spanish) 

Theoretical foundations of unit root changes with structural change by Lee and Strazicich are presented in this paper, and their use is illustrated with RATS econometrics software (SP). 

2009 

C12, C22, C32 

Working Paper 

Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) (Spanish) 

The equation system estimation method by means of apparently unrelated regressions is presented. This is then applied to non-traditional export modeling for Costa Rica (SP) 

1996 

C30 

Working Paper 

The Panel Data Technique: A Guide for its Use and Interpretation (Spanish) 

Brief presentation on fixed and random effect models, also including an illustration on the TSP software for their estimation (SP) 

2000 

C23, C33 

Research Document 

Multivariate Analysis Testing (Spanish) 

Outline on several multivariate analysis, including major components, factorial analysis, discriminant analysis, and analysis of conglomerates (SP) 

1995 

C40 

Working Paper 

Recursive Approaches to Estimate Regression Coefficients (Spanish) 

Brief summary on the basic aspects of three recursive estimate methods --rolling regressions, rolling windows, and Kalman filter (SP) 

2003 

C13, C20 

Working Paper 

Using the Kalman Filter to Estimate Trends in a Series (Spanish) 

Brief note on the Kalman filter estimation method, including an applied example (SP)  

2003 

C13, C20 

Working Paper 

Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Sector

Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type

Market Analysis to Operate Forward Exchange Rate Contracts (Spanish) 

The behavior the exchange rate would potentially show over a six-month period of time is simulated in this analysis (SP). 

1997  

 

Research Document 

Analysis of Variation in Costa Rica's International Reserves (Spanish) 

The aim of this document is to study the major determinants of BCCR's international monetary reserves (IMR), and to estimate a useful econometrics specification to project IMR evolution over the medium term (SP) 

2003 

E4, F3 

Research Document 

Applying the Direct & Indirect Seasonal Adjustment Method to the Foreign Exchange Flow (Spanish) 

Direct and indirect seasonal adjustment methods are applied to foreign exchange earnings and outflows for the period 1983-1997. The aim is to determine whether it is preferable to seasonally adjust the data once aggregated, or by component. Moroever, the document examines whether individual series have a seasonal component. 

1997 

C10, E01, F32 

Research Document 

Estimation of seasonal patterns in the Costa Rican Exchange Market, as of June 2013 (Spanish) 

The document updates seasonal patterns in the exchange market based on information from October 2006 through June 2013. 

2013 

F31, C19 

 

2006-2012 Estimation of seasonal patterns in the Costa Rican Exchange Market (Spanish) 

A study of seasonal patterns in four series: transactions in Monex, demand, offer and net offer of dollars made by intermediaries. 

2012 

F31, C19 

 

Estimation of Seasonal patterns in the Costa Rican Exchange Market (Spanish) 

Updates previous research about seasonality patterns in the exchange market. Allows identifying patterns in five daily time series: weighted average exchange rate negotiated in Monex, transactions carried out in Monex, and demand, supply, and net supply of dollars by intermediaries in negotiations "over the counter". 

2014 

F31, C19 

Research Document 

Exchange Rate Funds: Characteristics, Operational Principales, and Policy Implications (Spanish) 

Characteristics of the exchange rate fund monetary system are presented in this document, including the pros and cons of this fixed local currency convertibility system fully backed up with foreign exchange (SP). International examples are used for illustrating purposes. 

1997 

E52, E58, F31 

Research Document 

 

 

2013 

E65, F32, F41 

 

Estimation of the current account deficit that is consistent with long term capital flows duting 2000-2016 

This paper estimates the value of the current account deficit that is feasible with financed capital flows medium and long term. A guide to economic policy is that this value corresponds to 5.3% of GDP, which is equal to the average value observed during the period 1999Q1-2015Q3 for the aggregate of public and private capital flows. 

2016 

E61, F32 

Work document 

Comparative Analysis of Costa Rican and US Producer Price Indices (Spanish) 

In this study, Costa Rica's import price indices are compared and directly calculated, as well as the US Producer Price Index (USPPI). It is intended to validate the USPPI as an approximation to the former, and to contrast it with or build the new indicators.  

1997 

E31, F10, L16 

Research Document 

International Competitiveness of Costa Rica. Analysis of Results with CAN (Spanish) 

Results of the competitiveness matrix and their implications for Costa Rica's economy are analyzed. A Competitive Analysis of Nations (CAN) was applied, this being a computing instrument and international trade database (SP) 

2001 

C3, C8, E2 

Research Document 

Costa Rica: real exchange rate and equilibrium. 

This document describes the differences between the effective real exchange rate and the equilibrium effective real exchange rate. Their differences, appropriate uses and common mistakes, as well as the BCCR approach towards them 

2015 

F31 

Working Paper 

Costa Rica: Macroeconomic Volatility and Vulnerability (Spanish) 

The main vulnerabilities of Costa Rica's economy are analyzed in this document, where an early detection instrument for exchange rate crises is proposed. Watching for detonants of critical exchange rate pressures is recommended, as well as striving for discipline procurar disciplina (SP) 

2004 

C25, E61, F31, F47 

Research Document 

Current Account Deficit Consistent with Long-Term Capital Flows (Spanish) 

Costa Rica: Estimate on the current account deficit consistent with sustainable long-term capital flows --1999-2009 (SP) 

2010 

F34, F41 

Working Paper 

Determinants for Costa Rica's Current Account (Spanish) 

A current account model- (Glick & Rogoff and VAR models) is presented, establishing that an investment backlog, the primary result of government, the terms of trade, the international exchange rate, and the real exchange rate all have significant effects on the evolution of the country's current account. 

2005 

F3, F4 

Research Document 

Official Dolarization of the Economy (Spanish) 

Characteristics and concerns about a potential dollarization in any given country are discussed. The likely consequences --particularly in fiscal and monetary terms-- of adopting such a system, both favorable and unfavourable, are analyzed as well (SP) 

1999 

E52, F31, F36 

Research Document 

Effects of Externally Originated Shocks on Production and the Real Exchange Rate in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

VAR models are applied for the period 1982-1995 to assess the effects of trade external shocks (foreign demand and international prices) as well as financial ones (US interest rate) on Costa Rica's production and real exchange rate (SP) 

1997 

C32, F31, F44 

Research Document 

Macroeconomic effects of capital inflows into the Costa Rican economy (Spanish) 

The impact of capital inflows on different macroeconomic variables is quantified, based on information as of December, 2011. 

2013 

E32, E44, E58, F32, G38 

 

Macroeconomic effects of exchange rate depreciation 

After abanding the crawling peg regime in october 2006, the Costa Rican economy has experienced two abrupt depreciation episodes, in 2008 and 2014. The analysis of these two episodes shows that the observed depreciation is related to the increase of inflation, interest rates, and the lower economic growth. Within the labor market the depreciation episodes are related to lower employment and lower real wage.  

2016 

E30, E50, F31 

Working paper 

Estimate of the current account deficit consistent with long-term capital flows 

We estimate the current account deficit (DCC) consistent with long-term capital flows. The capital flows we consider were foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI more public capital, and Public capital plus private capital 

2013 

E21, E22, F32 

Working Paper 

Estimate of a Function for Costa Rica's Regular Exports (Spanish) 

Supply and demand variables were used for this estimate. The supply factors were included using an approach whereby an increase in the country's production capacity results in growth-driven exports. The demand factors are summarized as measures involving relative prices and income for the rest of the world. 

2012 

F14, F17 

Working Paper 

Estimate on Functions for Import and Export Demand for Goods and Services in Costa Rica (1991-2006) (Spanish) 

Estimates on import and export demand functions. Evidence is presented of the Marshall-Lerner condition, whereby an exchange rate depreciation causes an improvement in the balance of trade (SP) 

2008 

F14, F17, C52, C53 

Research Document 

Estimate on Costa Rica's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (1991-2006) (Spanish) 

Estimate for Costa Rica of the real equilibrium exchange rate --period 1991-2006-- using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, where relevant macroeconomic fundamentals for Costa Rica's economy are considered for this variable.(SP) 

2007 

C5, C8, F31 

Research Document 

Estimation of Optimal International Reserves for Costa Rica: A Micro-Founded Approach (EN) 

A model developed by Jeanne and Rancière (2006, 2011) to estimate an optimum amount of international reserves for Costa Rica is applied in this document (EN). 

2012 

F32, G01, G15 

Research Document 

Functions for Import and Export Demand for Goods and Services in Costa Rica (1991-2006) (Spanish) 

Functions of export and import demand for goods and services for Costa Rica, period 1991-2006 (SP) 

2008 

F14, F17, C52, C53 

Research Document 

Estimate of a Function for Costa Rica's Regular Imports without Hydrocarbon Blocks and without any Special Rules (Spanish) 

Two import estimates are presented --one for regular imports without hydrocarbons, and the other one for regular imports without hydrocarbons and without any special rules or regulations, both of them for the period 2000q1- 2011q3. 

2012 

F14, F17, F41, E17 

Working Paper 

Gains from Trade: the Costarican Case 

One of the oldest and most interesting questions in the economic literature is how to quantify the gainsfrom trade. Recently, Costinot & Rodr__guez-Clare (2013) (CRC) developed a methodology that uses the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to compute this value for a list of countries. Costa Rica has never been part of this database given the lack of appropriate data. However, with the publication of a new Input Output Table for Costa Rica, the Foreign Trade Ministry (COMEX) was able to develop a domestic version of the WIOD that includes the country. This allows for counterfactual exercises in which we compare the current situation with autarky and other average tari_ levels. As CRC show, this can be done using di_erent productive structures and competition schemes in the economy. The results can provide valuable information on how much a small open economy like Costa Rica's can bene_t from international trade, and what are the di_erences in the results when compared to similar countries. 

2016 

F10, I30, D57 

Research document 

Total Imports: Reformulating the ARIMA Model and Updating Seasonal Factors (Spanish) 

An ARIMA model is used to estimate the behavior of CIF imports for Costa Rica from 1983-1996. Additionally, the X11 ARIMA method was used to estimate the seasonality coeficients present in the series.  

1997 

F17, C22 

Research Document 

 

 

 

 

 

Follow-up Indicators for Costa Rica's Nominal Exchange Rate (Spanish) 

Analysis on the day-to-day behavior in terms of trend and volatility of the nominal exchange rate in both retail and wholesale markets during 2008, 2009, and the beginning of 2010. Financial analysis tools such as MACD, ATR, and RVI are used (SP) 

2010 

C22, F31 

Research Document 

Partial Dollarization in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The magnitude and evolution of dollarization in deposits is discussed, while also exploring the factors that determine a preference for financial assets in foreign currencies (SP) 

2003 

C22, E51, G10, N26 

Research Document 

Migration of the exchange rate band to a managed floating regime 

 

2016 

F31, F41, E58 

Working paper 

Inter-Temporary Sustainability Model of the Current Account Deficit (Spanish) 

Analysis on inter-temporary sustainability of the current account deficit based on accounting identities. The estimate is based on a study on the behavior of the balance of payments' components, and causal relations between them are not considered (SP) 

2005 

F32, F41 

Research Document 

New Estimates on Costa Rica's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (Spanish) 

Estimate for Costa Rica (1991-2005) on the real equilibrium exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) Model, which considers macroeconomic fundamentals, and an estimate of dynamic ordinary least squares (SP) 

2005 

C5, C8, F31 

Research Document 

Exchange Rate Pass Through: Analysis for Costa Rica's Economy (1991-2001) (Spanish) 

A pass through coefficient is estimated, and some factors pointed out in other empirical studies as potential determinants are discussed, e.g., the output gap, exchange rate deviation vis-á-vis equilibrium, the economy's opening, and a backlog in inflation (SP) 

2001 

E31, F15, F31 

Research Document 

Exchange Rate Pass Through to Prices (Spanish) 

Pass through coefficients are estimated for the short and long term for the exchange rate on the price of tradable and non-tradable goods in Costa Rica's economy from 1991 to 2002. Evidence is presented on a unilateral precedence of the exchange rate over inflation in both groups (SP) 

2002 

F31, E31 

Research Document 

Probability of a sudden current account correction for Costa Rica, through a survival model approach  

This paper estimates the probability of a sudden current account correction for Costa Rica, through a survival model approach using data panel. We find that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the dependency ratio increments, iv) the world's GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior. 

2015 

C22, C43, E27 

Investigation Document 

What drives capital inflows to Costa Rica? Risk Premium and Interest Rate Differentials 

It analyses the interest rate differential as the possible main factor behind the capital inflows experienced by Costa Rica during the second semester of 2012. For this purpose, a panel data model for interest rate differential is estimated taking into consideration an array of relevant macroeconomic variables.  

2014 

F36, G15 

Research document 

Optimal level estimate for Costa Rica International Reserve Assets: 2005-2015 

 

2016 

F32, G01, G15 

Working paper 

Exchange Rate Band System (Spanish) 

Theoretical models and experiences from other countries to explain the (dis)advantages of adopting an exchange rate band system for Costa Rica are presented. Measures required for this system's practical implementation are examined (SP) 

1996 

F31, F33 

Research Document 

Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Costa Rica's Balance of Payments (Spanish) 

A potentially sustainable current account deficit is estimated for Costa Rica's economy using different methods. It is concluded that the deficit for every year observed since the mid '80s has been sustainable. 

1997 

F32, F41 

Research Document 

Sovereign risk: global and local factors 

Determinants of sovereign spread in Costa Rica are analyzed using macroeconomic variables derived from theory. A quarterly panel data set from 2002 to 2014 is used to estimate an Arellano-Bond specification model. Additionally, a VAR model is estimated to identify transmission effects of shocks in risk perception in Latin America and Central America on Costa Rica's sovereign spread. Macroeconomic fundamentals associated with fiscal and external imbalances, local inflation and domestic interest rates explain EMBI spread of Costa Rica and of the countries in the sample. External factors related with international stock market volatility and global risk perception also have a role on EMBI spread determination. Furthermore, there is a contemporaneous and positive effect of a perturbation in Latin American spread on Costa Rica's EMBI spread. 

2015 

G15 

Research document 

Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate for Costa Rica. The BEER Approach (1991q1-2009q2) (Spanish) 

Estimate for Costa Rica of the equilibrium real exchange rate through the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, which considers macroeconomic fundamentals --Period 1991-2009 (SP) 

2010 

C5, C8, F31 

Research Document 

A Model to Estimate the Optimum Level of International Monetary Reserves for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Estimate on the optimum amount of international reserves BCCR should have. This study is based on a model by Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb (1992), whose main idea is to minimize the social cost of keeping such reserves. The probability of crisis is viewed as an endogenous factor (Gottlieb) (SP) 

2010 

C02, C51, E59 

Research Document 

Feasibility and Convenience of Full Dolarization in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The nature of an exchange rate scheme based on a fully dollarized economy is presented, including their differences, andvantages, and disadvantages vis-á-vis the rest of countries, and the minimum conditions a country should have to adopt it. The feasibilty of adopting it in Costa Rica over the short and the medium term is discussed (SP)  

1999 

F31, F33 

Research Document 

Monetary Policy and Inflation

Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type

A Disaggregated Model and Second Round Effects for CPI Inflation in Costa Rica  

A medium-term forecasting model is used in this paper to estimate Costa Rica's headline inflation, using disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimate is characterized by a process of declining inflation. 

2012 

C51, C53 E31, E58 

Research Document 

Update on Costa Rica's Living Standards 1960-1995 (Spanish) 

Proposal to establish a standard of living index for Costa Rica for several years (SP) 

1997

D60, D63, E31, E64 

Research Document 

 

Period 1982-2007 (SP) 

2008

C5, E5 

Research Document 

Some Measurements of the Inflationary Process (Spanish) 

The case of Costa Rica (SP) 

1998

E3, E5 

Research Document 

Chart and Correlational Analysis of Inflation versus Unemployment and Inflation versus Growth (Spanish) 

Chart and correlational analysis of inflation v growth and inflation v unemployment in economies using inflation targeting (SP) 

2010

E42, E58 

Working Paper 

Analysis on the Properties of Some Price Indices (Spanish) 

Analysis on characteristics of some price indices with a view to their alternative use in economic research (SP) 

1994

E3, E5 

Research Document 

Analysis of the dynamic relationship between M1 monetary aggregates (Spanish) 

Anayisis of the dynamic relationship among M1 monetary aggregates, monetary base, issue with domesetic prices, and economic activity in Costa Rica (SP) 

1997

C22, E31, E52 

Research Document 

Spectral Analysis of Price Indicators in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The behavior of monthly variation series of 22 price indicators is studied through spectral analysis, using data from the period of Feb-1997 - Dec. 2010 (SP) 

2011

E31, E32, E39 

Research Document 

Analysis on the Dynamic Relationship among Monetary Aggregatees, Domestic Prices, and Economic Activity (Spanish) 

An analysis on the dynamic relationship among major monetary aggregates, domestic prices, and economic activity (SP). 

1996

C22, E31, E52 

Research Document 

Performance of Artificial Neural Networks in Forecasting Costa Rican Inflation (Spanish) 

Research paper presented at the XIV Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network of the Americas (EN) 

2009

C45, C53, E37 

Research Document 

Theoretical aspects on monetary policy design (Spanish) 

The main concepts that should be theoretically considered when designing monetary policy are presented here (SP) 

1997

E42, E58, E61 

Research Document 

Monetary Pressure Coefficients on Prices over the Short and Long Term (Spanish) 

Monetary pressure coefficients on short and long term prices (SP) 

1995

C20, E31, E41, E51 

Research Document 

Combining Inflation Forecasts: New Methodologies (Spanish) 

Combined inflation projections: New methodologies (SP) 

2009

C53, E37 

Research Document 

Combined Inflation Projections (Spanish) 

The various inflation projections of individual models recently used are combined here in one single projection (SP) 

2001

C54, E58 

Research Document 

Constructing Asymmetric Fan Charts (Spanish) 

An application for inflation forcasting in Costa Rica (SP) 

2010

E31, E37, C19, C53 

Research Document 

Costa Rica - Sensitivity of Portfolio Capitals to Premium and Implications for Macroeconomic Policy (Spanish) 

Period 1991-2007 (SP) 

2008

E44, E52, F32, G11 

Research Document 

Costs and benefits of inflation reduction in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The cost in terms of well-being associated with the reduction of the inflation rate in CR is identified and compared to expected earnings. Costs are measured using the consumer surplus approach, for which a function of cash demand is estimated. Earnings are quantified by deducting the expected improvement in the production of the economy due to inflation reduction.  

2014

E31, E64, I31 

 

Costs of transactions in Costa Rica* 

In this study we carry out the first formal estimation of the social cost of transactions in Costa Rica. The estimation considers transactions in cash and cards, covers the 2008- 2011 years and is based on the methodology applied by Bergman, Guibourg and Segendorf (2007) for Sweden, with adaptations specific for Costa Rica. 

2012

D12, D23, D24 

Investigation document 

Costa Rica in transition towards inflation targets (Spanish) 

Prepared upon request of the IADB, presented in the seminar-workshop: "Costa Rica in transition towards inflation targeting: challenges and limitations", organized by the World Bank in San José on November 5, 2011. This provides an overview of the context in which the BCCR Board of Directors made the decision to start a migration process towards an explicit inflation target scheme. It also presents important facts and amendments as of June 2012. 

2014

E58 

 

The Phillips Curve in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

An estimate on the Error Correction Model is presented with quarterly data (SP) 

2003

E47, E52 

Research Document 

Demand for Time Deposits and Current Account Deposits in Foreign Currency (Spanish) 

Econometric and ARIMA models are assessed here to help explain and estimate the behavior of demand for current account and time deposits in foreign currency for the period 1987-1995 (SP). 

1996

C22, G11, G21 

Research Document 

Demand for Cash in Costa Rica, 2000-2010 (Spanish) 

The demand of real balances over the short and long term is estimated for circulating cash, quasi money in national currency, and total liquidity (SP) 

2010

E41, E5 

Research Document 

Private Demand for Public Debt and Other Financial Assets (Spanish) 

The private demand for public debt and other financial assets are estimated in this document. (SP) 

2001

G2, E62 

Research Document 

Real Private Demand for Credit (Spanish) 

The demand for credit in Costa Rica's private sector is estimated for the period from Jan 1995 to Dec. 2001. (SP) 

2002

E4, E5 

Research Document 

Quarterly Demand for Currency Issue (Spanish) 

Estimate on the quarterly demand for currency issue by using statistical methods of ordinary least squares, error correction, and auto-regressive vectors (SP) 

1999

 

Research Document 

Dynamics of Inflation and the New Neo-Keynesian Phillips Curve in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Review on the historic evolution of the Phillips curve. (SP)  

2004

B4, C5, E3, E5 

Research Document 

Dynamics and Persistence of Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Period 1953-2009 (SP) 

2010

E31, C22 

Research Document 

Designing an Advanced Synthetic Index for Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Advance document I: Cyclical behavior of inflation levels (SP) 

1998

C5, E31 

Research Document 

Designing an Advanced Synthetic Index for Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Advance document II: Cyclical behavior of inflation levels (SP) 

1998

E31, E32 

Research Document 

Designing an Advanced Synthetic Index for Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The case of Costa Rica (SP) 

1999

C5, E31 

Working Paper 

Determining Structural Changes in Inflation Levels, 1997-2011 (Spanish) 

A null hyphotesis on whether a structural change ocurred in the interannual inflation rate ocurred is assessed. From this date forward, one-digit rates have been consistently recorded --an outstanding outcome in the country's recent inflatinary record (SP) 

2012

C12, C32, E31 

Working Paper 

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy (Spanish) 

An approach to how they are measured in Costa Rica (SP) 

1995

E5 

Research Document 

Asymmetric Effecs of Monetary Policy (Spanish) 

Obtaining empirical evidence on whether monetary policy results in asymmetrical effects on the extent of economic activity. (SP) 

2003

E4, E5, C2 

Research Document 

 

As part of the preparation and transition process to an inflation target regime in the year 2011 the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) established the Monetary Policy Interest Rate as its main monetary policy instrument, since then it has become of institutional interest to assess the effectiveness of this instrument to influence the remaining interest rates in the financial system. This is why this paper studies the Central Bank of Costa Rica monetary policy interest rate pass through to the interest rates of the financial system from January 2000 until July 2013.  

2014

E43, E44, E52 

Investigation document 

 

 

2012

E31, E58 

 

A Monetary Approach to the Effects of a Fixed Exchange Rate on Prices and Interest Rates (Spanish) 

Monetary effects of maintaining a fixed exchange rate on prices and interest rates are analyzed in this paper. (SP) 

2002

C2, E5 

Research Document 

Estimate on a Monthly Demand Function per Currency Issue (Spanish) 

A monthly demand function in real terms for currency issue is estimated here using similar specifications as those propsoed by Cagan (SP).  

1996

E4, E5 

Research Document 

Estimate on the Parameter Interest Rate for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

This document establishes whether an economic relationship may be found to explain the behavior of BEM interest rates. (SP) 

2001

E43, E52 

Research Document 

Estimate on the Real Neutral Interest Rate for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Period 1991-2006 (SP) 

2007

C3, E4 

Research Document 

Middle-Term Strategies to Reduce Inflation in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Some options the Central Bank has to reduce inflation over the middle term are analyzed (SP)  

2004

E31, E52, E58 

Research Document 

Assessing the Pass-Through Linear Model to Forecast Inflation (Spanish) 

Assessment of the linear pass-through model for projecting inflation within the exchange rate system of bands (SP) 

2009

E31, E58 

Research Document 

Assessing Variables for Inflation Projections (Spanish) 

An assessment of economic variables to forecast inflation in Costa Rica (SP). 

2003

E31, E37, E52 

Research Document 

International Evidence on some Prerrequisites to Adopt Inflation Targeting (Spanish) 

International evidence on some "prerrequisites" to adopt inflation targeting (SP)  

2007

E5, E6 

Research Document 

Evolution of Macroeconomic Modeling at BCCR (Spanish) 

Period 2002-2006 (SP) 

2006

 

Research Document 

Inflation expectations in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Analysis of expected Inflation by levels, based on the Monthly Inflation Expectations Survey and Exchange Rate Variation; analysis of different hypothesis are analyzed concerning formation processes. 

2013

E31, E52, C82 

 

Inflation Expectations and Variations in Exchange Rate (Spanish) 

Inflation expectations and exchange rate variations implied in securities transactions in Costa Rican Debt Bonds 2005-2009 (SP) 

2009

E5, E6, D84 

Research Document 

Experiences regarding Monetary Policy - Lessons for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Relevant elements to be considered when implementing a new monetary strategy for the country are analyzed here (SP).  

1997

E52, E58 

Research Document 

Reaction Function for the Interest Rate in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Interest rate changes and the factors affecting such changes in Costa Rica are discussed in this document (SP) 

2000

E42, E52 

Research Document 

Reaction Function for BCCR's Policy Rate (Spanish) 

An estimate of a reaction function for BCCR's policy rate. (SP) 

2003

E4, E5 

Research Document 

Towards an Understanding of the Inflation Phenomenon (Spanish) 

The case of Costa Rica (SP) 

2007

C22, E31, E52 

Research Document 

Toward a More Effective Implementation of Operations in the Open Market (Spanish) 

Toward a greater effectiveness when implementing BCCR's open market transactions. (SP)  

2005

E31, E44, E58 

Research Document 

Rational Expectation Hypothesis and the Model of Development of Inflation Expectations in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Documento de investigación presentado en la XIV Reunión de la Red de Investigadores de Bancos Centrales del Continente Americano 

2009

E31, E52, E59 

Research Document 

Impact of Oil Prices in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The impact of oil prices in Costa Rica's economy is quantified here (SP) 

2000

E30, E50 

Research Document 

 

 

 

 

Indicator for the monetary policy rate of the Central Bank of Costa Rica 

El presente trabajo elabora un indicador de tasa de política monetaria (ITPM) del Banco Central de Costa Rica a partir del año 2000 en adelante. Para la construcción del indicador se toma como referencia la definición de la tasa de política actual siendo ésta una tasa de corto plazo. 

2015

E43, E52, E61 

Working paper 

Indicators of core inflation for Costa Rica, based on exclusion and reweighting (Spanish) 

Evaluation of the performance of new core inflation indicators for Costa Rica, using the methodology of exclusion and reweighting of items of the basic food basket at the official index. 

2013

E31, C43, E37 

 

Credibility indices of the Banco Central de Costa Rica in the transition to Inflation Targets (Spanish) 

Six credibility indices of the monetary policy of the Banco Central de Costa Rica are presented as it transitions towards the Inflation Target. The indices, designed by Cecchetti and Krause (2002), Mendonça (2004), Sicsú (2005), Nahon and Meurer (2009), and a new index proposed in this study, were calculated based on the Monthly Survey on Inflation and Exchange Rate Variation Expectations. 

2014

D84, E31, E58 

 

Inflation and Output Gap (Spanish) 

An empirical study on the effect of the output gap in inflation (SP) 

2000

E31, E32 

Research Document 

Inflation in a Context of Tradable and Non-Tradable Goods with Inertia (Spanish) 

The model presented here serves to explain the causes of moderate inflation in a small, open economy (SP). 

1995

E40, F41 

Research Document 

Relevance of External Inflation when Defining an Inflation Rate (Spanish) 

External inflation of relevance when considering how to define an inflation target (SP) 

2010

E5, E6 

Research Document 

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence for Costa Rica. (SP) 

2002

C4,E3 

Research Document 

Significance of International Inflation for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

External inflation of relevance for Costa Rica is discussed in this document, and is defined as that having significant effects on domestic inflation behavior (SP)  

2012

E31, C12, C43 

 

Business partner inflation as a reference for inflation target in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

A measure of inflation of business partners is proposed, based on moving weights which are constantly adjusted according to the relative importance of the bilateral trade between Costa Rica and each partner with respect to total trade. 

2013

E31, E61, F00 

 

General Guidelines on the Administration of International Monetary Reserves (Spanish) 

General Guidelines on the Administration of International Monetary Reserves by the Central Bank (SP) 

1997

E58, F30 

Research Document 

Transmission Mechanism for Bank Credits and its Relevance for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

The banking credit transmission mechanism and its relevance for the case of Costa Rica. (SP) 

2004

E5, G2 

Research Document 

Transmission Mechanisms for Monetary Policy - A conceptual Framework (Spanish) 

Most important theoretical aspects about the main monetary policy transmission mechanisms (SP) 

1999

E31, E52, E58 

Research Document 

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Costa Rica, 1991-2007 (Spanish) 

Project jointly coordinated with CEMLA and some of Latin America's Central Banks (SP) 

2008

E37, E52 

Research Document 

Medias truncadas del IPC como indicadores de inflación subyacente en Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Medias truncadas del IPC como indicadores de inflación subyacente en Costa Rica (SP) 

2011

C46, E31 

Research Document 

Trimmed Means of the CPI in 2009 (Spanish) 

An alternative indicator of core inflation (SP) 

2010

 

Research Document 

Measuring Ouput Gap and Estimates with the Phillips Curve (Spanish) 

Measurements on the output gap and Philliips curve estimates for Costa Rica's economy. (SP) 

2005

C51, C52, E2 

Research Document 

Core Inflation Measures for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Alternative core inflation measures are developed and assessed in this document. (SP) 

2002

E31, E52 

Research Document 

Macroeconomic Modeling at Costa Rica's Central Bank (Spanish) 

Transition from exchange rate peg to inflation targeting. (SP) 

2006

C5, E1 

Research Document 

Model of Development of Inflation Expectations (Spanish) 

Model of development of inflation expectations. (SP)  

2006

C5, E3 

Research Document 

BCCR's Macroeconomic Model of Quarertly Projections (Spanish) 

BCCR's Macroeconomic model of quarterly projections (SP) 

2007

C5, E1 

Research Document 

Macroeconomic Model Quarterly Forecast Transition to Exchange-Rate Flexible System (Spanish) 

BCCR's model of quarterly projections in the transition to a flexible exchange rate system (SP) 

2008

C50, C53, E17 

Research Document 

Monetary Model of Inflation Applied to Capitalization of Costa Rica's Central Bank (Spanish) 

Monetary model of inflation applied to BCCR capitalization (SP) 

2006

E31, E58, E63 

Research Document 

Short-term inflation models for tradable and non-tradable sectors (Spanish) 

Short-term inflation models for tradable and non-tradable sectors of Costa Rica's economy (SP) 

2011

E31, E37, E39 

Research Document 

Single-Variable Models for Inflation (Spanish) 

Choosing a single-variable model to project inflation (SP) 

2000

E31, E37 

Research Document 

 

Los resultados muestran que los cambios en la tasa de política monetaria se reflejan primeramente en las tasas pasivas de los bancos comerciales y luego de forma indirecta sobre las tasas activas. Con respecto a la diferencia entre bancos estatales y privados, existe evidencia que los estatales reaccionan primero. 

2015

E43, E44, E52 

 

Persistencia inflacionaria en Costa Rica: Precios de Servicios y Regulados 

Estudia el grado de persistencia inflacionaria y las rigideces de precios, a nivel desagregado y agregado, de los artículos del IPC en los subíndices de Bienes-Servicios y No regulados-Regulados. La evidencia apunta a que las variaciones de precios artículos regulados y servicios poseen mayores grados de persistencia. 

2015

E31, C22, C32 

 

Policy Rate Pass-Through. Evidence from Costa Rica's Economy (Spanish) 

Policy rate pass-through. Evidence from the Costa Rican economy (EN) 

2008

E43, E44, E52 

Research Document 

Monetary Programming by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Analysis, proposals, and considerations for the middle term. (SP) 

2001

E31, E47, E52, E58 

Research Document 

Inflation forecast for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

An estimate on artificial neural networks (SP). 

2005

E31, E37, E52 

Research Document 

Inflation Forecasting through Factorial Analysis (Spanish) 

Inflation forecasting through factorial analysis. (SP)  

2006

E31, E37 

Research Document 

Propagation of Inflationary Shocks in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

An estimate on inflationary propagation shocks on groups and products included in the CPI is presented here, using structural VARs (SP) 

2012

C32, E31 

Research Document 

Methodological Proposal to Estimate the Size of a Bill Order (Spanish) 

A methodological proposal is presented to estimate the size of a bill acquisition order for Costa Rica's economy (SP) 

1999

A1 

Research Document 

Methodological Proposal to Estimate the Size of a Coin Order (Spanish) 

A methodological proposal is presented to estimate the size of a coin acquisition order for Costa Rica's economy (SP) 

2000

E41, E42 

Research Document 

Inflation Projections, Innovation in Agricultural & Regulated Prices and Adjustments (Spanish) 

Adjustments in original inflation projections resulting from innovations in domestic prices (SP) 

2000

E31, E37 

Research Document 

Compilation on Definitions and Changes in Policy Rates by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Major changes in policy rate are documented here, including changes in its definition and level. Period from Feb 2004-Oct 2008 (SP) 

2008

E31, E43 

Research Document 

Reformulating the Aggregate Demand Function for Costa Rica's Production. (Spanish) 

Applying the error correction mechanism. (SP)  

2005

C5, E1, E2 

Research Document 

Relationship among Major Monetary Aggregatess, Domestic Prices, and Economic Activity (Spanish) 

An analysis on the dynamic relationship among major monetary aggregates, domestic prices, and economic activity (SP). 

1996

C22, E31, E37 

Research Document 

Monetary Transmission in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Monetary transmission in Costa Rica is examined, whereby a mini-devaluations system has been succesfully used as exchange rate policy for 15 years (SP) 

2000

C46, E31 

Research Document 

Transmission of Changes in Monetary Policy Rates to all Other Rates in the Financial System (Spanish) 

Transmission of changes in the policy rate to interest rates in the country's financial system (SP) 

2011

E43, E44, E52 

Research Document 

Estimated Transfer of Exchange Rates to different components Consumer Price Index 

During the first quarter of 2014, the Costa Rican colon experienced the strongest depreciation of the last 5 years. One of the main consequences was an increase in the inter-annual ination rate, beginning on March 2014. Considerable diferences in the ination rate were observed in the components and groups of the Consumer Price Index. The main purpose of this paper is to quantify the exchange rate passthrough elasticity towards the ination rate of each group. In order to achieve this purpose, I estimated vector autoregressive systems (VAR) for each group and used the accumulated responses of prices to an exchange rate impulse. For the 2000-2014 period, I measure a pass-through elasticity of 0,219 for the CPI. Transportation and Entertainment and Culture are the two sector most afected by exchange rate variations 

2016

E31, E50, F00 

Research document 

Trimmed Means of the CPI as an Indicator of Core Inflation for Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Trimmed means of the CPI as an indicator of core inflation for Costa Rica (EN) 

2011

C46, E31 

Research Document 

Using Weekly Seasonality Coefficients to Estimate the Balance in Currency Issue (Spanish) 

Methodological proposal on a technique to seasonally adjust weakly periodicity time series (SP) 

1997

C1, E42, E5 

Research Document 

Validating the ARIMA Model for Inflation (Spanish) 

The single-variable ARMA model is validated for projecting short-term inflation (SP) 

2011

E31, E37 

Working Paper 

DT-05-11 - Validating the VAR Model of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms (Spanish) 

DT-05-2011 Validating the VAR model of transmission mechanisms for monetary policy (SP) 

2011

C32, C52, E31 

Working Paper 

Validating the VAR Model of Impact of Oil Prices in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Validation of the VAR model of impact of oil prices in Costa Rica. 

2011

C1, E52 

Working Paper 

Validating the Model of Oil Prices Impact in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Validation on the model of impact of oil prices in Costa Rica (SP) 

2008

C1, E52 

Research Document 

Validating the Pass-Through Model for Exchange Rate in Costa Rica -- 1991-2007 (Spanish) 

Validation of the exchange rate pass through model for Costa Rica 1991-2007 (SP) 

2008

C1, E52 

Research Document 

Validation of Government Bond-Based Model for Inflation Forecasting. (Spanish) 

Validation of the Government bond-based model for inflation forecasting (SP) 

2007

E31, E37 

Research Document 

Validating the Single-Variable Model of Inflation Used in Combined Forecasts (Spanish) 

Validation of the single-variable inflation model used in combined forecasting (SP) 

2008

E31, E37 

Research Document 

Validating the VAR Linear Model of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms (Spanish) 

Validation of the VAR Lineal Model of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms (SP) 

2007

E31, E37 

Research Document 

Seasonal Variables in Regression Models (Spanish) 

Applied to the demand for cash in Costa Rica (SP) 

1998

C1 

Research Document 

Rate of Disinflation in Economies with Inflation Targets (Spanish) 

Rate of disinflation in economies with inflation targets (SP) 

2010

E31, E65 

Working Paper 

Public Sector

Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type

Some Aspects About the Creation of the Regulatory Authority for Public Services (Spanish) 

Some general aspects on the Regulatory Authority for Public Services (ARESEP) are provided in this document. (SP) 

1997  

L51 

Research Document 

Analysis of Intolerance of Costa Rica's External Debt (Spanish) 

Analysis on intolerance of Costa Rica's foreign debt. (SP) 

2004 

H63 

Research Document 

Costa Rica: Estimate on the Structural Fiscal and Cyclical Deficit (Spanish) 

Period 1983-1999. (SP) 

2000 

H62 

Research Document 

Debt and Fiscal Policy Effects (Spanish) 

Assessment of vulnerabilities for Costa Rica's economy. (SP) 

2007 

C6, E6, H6 

Research Document 

Public Finances and Inflation Reduction (Spanish) 

Financial programming and economic models. (SP) 

2001 

 

Research Document 

 

 

 

 

 

Alternative Indicators to Assess the Sustainability of the Fiscal Policy (Spanish) 

Measurements of the Primary Structural Balance for the public sector. (SP) 

2003 

E62, H69 

Research Document 

Discretional and Cyclical Guidance on Costa Rica's Fiscal Policy (Spanish) 

Results for Costa Rica of isolating the public deficit component induced by the situation, thereby making an approximation on the part that is thought to be specifically the result of fiscal policy. (SP) 

1995 

E62 

Research Document 

Chances of Success for Costa Rica's Fiscal Adjustment Strategy (Spanish) 

Chances for success of Costa Rica's fiscal adjstment strategy. (SP) 

1997 

E62 

Research Document 

Net Financial Standing of the Global Public Sector (Spanish) 

Methodological aspects and simulation exercises. (SP) 

2003 

C6, E6, H6 

Research Document 

Soundness of the Global Public Sector (Spanish) 

A preliminary empirical exploration for Costa Rica. (SP) 

2001 

E62 

Research Document 

Financial System

 Title

Description

Year

JEL

Type

Analysis on the Competitiveness of Costa Rica's Financial Sector (Spanish) 

The competitiveness of intermediares constituting the National Financial System (NFS) as a whole is analyzed, while also assessing ways to promote a greater competition within the system. The degree and temporary behavior of the NFS structure is measured for the period from Jan 1995-March 2009. (SP)  

2009 

G14, G20  

Research Document 

Market Analysis and Bank Strategies (Spanish) 

Key topics on the market structure, rivarly, business strategies, and behavior according to the theory of firm for the case of the banking industry are presented . Based on a presentation by Dr. Mariano Rojas, in the context of a seminar offered at CEMLA. (SP) 

1997

L11, L12, G21 

Research Document 

Analysis on the Sensitivity of Commercial Banks to Macroeconomic Changes (Spanish) 

The sensitivity of bank intermediaries response is studied, considering two of the most significant risks they face -- liquidity and credit-- in the face of changes in the macroeconomic environment. Thus, vulnerability of the banking system is examined in the face of these changes.(SP) 

1999

G14, G21 

Research Document 

General Aspects on the Implicit Protection System vis-á-vis the Deposit Insurance (Spanish) 

This document aims to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of creating a deposit insurance system vis-á-vis the implicit protection system. The feasibility of creating this system is also analyzed specifically for Costa Rica (SP) 

1997

G21, G22, G28 

Research Document 

Private Banks: Creation of Homogeneous Groups using Traditional Criteria (Spanish) 

This document is a first attempt to identify homogeneous groups of financial entities based on the traditional ranking criteria. This is a step prior to designing and implementing a system of early warning indicators . (SP) 

1998

G21 

Research Document 

Controling and Managing Systemic Risk, and Large Operators (Spanish) 

Measures being adopted by the international community to manage systemic risk produced by systemically important institutions are compiled and discussed here, particularly those entities that due to their size may produce harmful effects on the entire society if they go bankgrupt (SP) 

2011

G10, G20, G30 

Working Paper 

Banking Crises: Causal Factors and Guidelines for their Adequate Prevention and Management (Spanish) 

Key macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influencing financial crises are described in this document, along with major sources of vulnerability of the local system and the more desirable characteristics of early warning indicators to help prevent a crisis in the banking sector (SP) 

1998

G01, G20 

Research Document 

Determinantes del Margen de Intermediación en Costa Rica (SP) (Spanish) 

Factors that determine the financial intermediation margin of banks in Costa Rica for the period 1994-2011 are examined in this document. Special attention is paid to those factors that may be impacted by BCCR through monetary policy. (SP) 

2011

E43, E44, G21 

Research Document 

 

 

2012

E43, E44, G21 

 

Determinants of interest rate spread in Costa Rica (EN) (Spanish) 

Factors which determine the financial intermediation margin for Costa Rican banks for the period 1994-2011. (EN) 

2011

E43, E44, G21 

Research Document 

Ethical Risk Associated with the Use of Short-Term Foreign Debt by the Financial Sector (Spanish) 

The ethical risk associated to the use of short-term external indebtedness by financial intermediaries is addressed in this document. The various factors influencing this phenomenon are analyzed with a simple economic/mathematical model are analyzed, while also proposing economic policy measures. 

2011

G21, E58 

Research Document 

Differential between Public Debt Interest Rate and the Rates of Costa Rica's Banking System (Spanish) 

The causes of the returns differential between bank deposits, and public debt using a theoretical approach, which is also subject to empirical validation. (SP)  

2003

E43, E44, G21 

Research Document 

Partial Dollarization in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

This document examines the magnitude, evolution and causes of a growing preference for foreign currency financial assets as store of value (asset replacement), and to a certain extent as a means of payment (cash replacement) in Costa Rica . (SP) 

2003

C22, E51, G10, N26 

Research Document 

Is the Central Bank's Rate a Guide for the Banking System? (Spanish) 

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a relationship between the interest rate reflecting the tone of the monetary policy, and the range of passive and active interest rates found in the financial market. (SP) 

1999

 

Research Document 

Assessing the Creation of a Guarantee Deposit System for the Financial System (Spanish) 

The impact that the creation of a deposit insurance system would have on net exposure of liabilities of financial intermediaries is assessed in this document. To this end, several liability coverages are estimated, and several scenarios are analyzed. (SP) 

2001

G18, G22, K29 

Research Document 

Is Costa Rica's Banking System a Disciplined One? (Spanish) 

The main purpose of this study is to establish whether or not there is a market discipline in Costa Rica's banking system-- which may be a signifiant proof prior to the potential creation of a guarantee fund for bank deposits.(SP) 

2002

E43, G21, G22 

Research Document 

Identifying the Degree of Competition in Costa Rica's Banking Sector (Spanish) 

The degree of competition in Costa Rica's banking industry is analyzed based on Bresnahan's model (1982), whereby information is extracted from disaggregated data so as to measure the discrepancy between the demand function and the marginal income function of the banking system. (SP) 

2005

E44, G21 

Research Document 

 

 

 

 

A Financial Stress Index for the Costa Rican Economy 

In this paper we present the Index of Financial Stress for the Costa Rican economy constructed using weakly data from 20 variables of the Costa Rican financial system. The method of aggregation used is principal components where financial stress is assumed to be the main driving force behind the co-movement observed between these variables. 

2014

G10, G01, E44 

Research document 

Discriminant Analysis Technique: An Use in Banking (Spanish) 

A discriminant analysis is presented to determine, based on a series of indicators, whether it is possible to "discriminate" if an observation belongs to a specific group within several existing groups. Aditionally, ranking functions are estimated for new cases. (SP) 

1998

C19 

Research Document 

Margin of financial intermediation and market power in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

Market power as a determining factor of the margin of financial intermediation for the Costa Rican banking system between 2000-2012 is examined. The study is based on a theoretical model for profit maximization for a representative bank. One of its main findings is that market power in the national banking system has been taken into consideration by entitties when they determine their interest rates. 

2014

E43, E44, G21 

 

Markets, Assets and Financial Innovation (Spanish) 

Markets and financial assets are defined and characterized in this document. Some determinants are mentioned on the rise of financial innovations, while also describing the ones thought to be more relevant, as well as their potential use in emerging markets. (SP) 

1996

G10, G21 

Research Document 

A Technical Note on Bubbles (Spanish) 

An attempt is made to develop a simple theoretical model on the likelihood of having a price bubble. A model similar to Cagan's is used, where the solution of rational expectations does admit the possibility of a bubble . (SP) 

1996

G01, G13, G21 

Research Document 

Organization and Strategic Behavior of Costa Rica's Banking Industry (Spanish) 

This document is mainly aimed at obtaining a diagnostic analysis on the National Banking System. The main tool was a survey on the bank population, and several aspects relating to strategy and competition were addressed. (SP) 

2000

L11, L12, G21 

Research Document 

Early Warning Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators to Detect Banking Crises (Spanish) 

Proposed indicators and follow-up methodologies are presented in detail for macroeconomic and financial fields. A proposal is made to monitor a whole set macroeconomic indicators and a vulnerability index. Moreover, a set of 19 financial ratios of commercial banks are examined. 

1999

E44, G21, G28 

Research Document 

Sensitivity of the National Banking Sytem's Delinquency to Liquidity Ratio (Spanish) 

The main purpose of this study is to identify some variables in the environment affecting financial indicators of delinquency and liquidity in Costa Rica's banking system, as well as to quantify their effect, and establish the backlog with which such an effect comes when faced with changes in certain environmental variables. (SP) 

2001

C4, G2 

Research Document 

Feasibility of Deposit Insurance in Costa Rica (Spanish) 

An estimate is made to determine whether or not the explicit creation of a deposit insurance in Costa Rica is feasible. The main characteristics of this protection system are also presented.(SP) 

1998

G22, G28 

Research Document 

 

The documents represent exclusively the views of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Board of Directors of the BCCR.  Therefore, all errors and opinions are the sole responsibility of the authors and not of the BCCR nor its Board.

 

 The authors of the papers are the copyright holders of each document.  The information contained in them can be used freely.  We beg you to make appropriate use of it: do not alter any portion of it, and cite the documents that you use as references.

 

If you wish to register in this site, please visit Subscriptions, select Economic Research, and follow the instructions.

 

If you have any questions, please send them to this e-mail address: Inv_Eco@bccr.fi.cr

 

 

 

 

structure image
Banco Central de Costa Rica © 2014.